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Federal Cabinet Speculation
Federal, NewsWritten by Chris Gray
When the Prime Minister visits the Governor General on November 20th to unveil his new cabinet, we can expect significant changes. Reduced from 177 seats to 157, including losing a high-profile Minister in Ralph Goodale, there are some holes. Over the next few weeks, we will hear many rumours as the vetting process begins and MPs start to field calls to gauge their interest in serving in cabinet. The Prime Minister, who has once again committed to a gender balanced cabinet, will also have to factor in rewarding long-serving MPs, keeping some current core cabinet ministers and rewarding key high-profile rookies who knocked off key opposition MPs. And of course, the Prime Minster will have to figure out how best to serve Western Canada’s interest in cabinet with no MPs in Alberta or Saskatchewan. So, let’s take a closer look.
Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
The West is a mess for the Prime Minister. With no seats in either Alberta or Saskatchewan, he may be forced to do something unconventional to ensure they are represented around the cabinet table. Since a cabinet minister does not have to be a sitting MP, the Prime Minister could look to appoint a Senator or two from those provinces, which is not unprecedented. Rumours continue that there are ongoing discussions with Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi. Trudeau could also designate a minister from B.C. or Manitoba to cover off Alberta and Saskatchewan. This will be one of the most important early decisions for this minority government. Reduced to only four seats in Manitoba, it’s quite possible that two of the four will be awarded a cabinet seat. With Jim Carr’s recent cancer diagnosis, it would be very surprising to see him return to cabinet, where he serves as the Minister of International Trade Diversification. That leaves Dan Vandal (Saint Boniface-Saint Vital), Terry Duguid (Winnipeg South) and Kevin Lamoureux (Winnipeg North) with a very good chance to be promoted.
British Columbia
In British Columbia, Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South) and Carla Qualtrough (Delta) both performed well in their roles at Defence and Public Services respectively – they should be a lock to return. We don’t expect a lot of changes to the BC representatives in cabinet – Joyce Murray could also return; she served as the Minister of Digital Government and Treasury Board last Parliament. If the Prime Minister wants to have a northern representative, his choice will be between Larry Bagnell (Yukon) and Michael McLeod (Northwest Territories).
The Maritimes
Looking to the Maritimes, it’s a safe bet that Seamus O’Regan (St. John’s South-Mt. Pearl) will return to cabinet, as well as Bernadette Jordan (South Shore-St. Margarets) who easily won her seat over the Conservative challenger. Watch for newcomers Lenore Zann (Cumberland-Colchester) and Jaime Battiste (Sydney-Victoria) to get some consideration. Zann served the last 10 years as an NDP MLA, and Battiste is a lawyer by training and a member of the Potlotek First Nation. And with PEI returning all four of its Liberal MPs, we can once again anticipate that either Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan) or Wayne Easter (Malpeque) will come back to cabinet. MacAulay, the dean of the House having been an MP since 1988, served as the Veterans Affairs Minister last Parliament, while Easter was the Finance Committee Chair. In New Brunswick, look for both Dominic Leblanc (Beausejour) and Ginette Petitpas-Taylor (Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe) to have a seat at the table again. Last Parliament, Leblanc served as Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and Petitpas-Taylor was the Health Minister.
Quebec
In Quebec, we won’t be surprised to see former cabinet members Marc Garneau (Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount), Francois-Phillipe Champagne (Saint-Maurice-Champlain), Melanie Joly (Ahunistic-Cartierville) and David Lametti (Lasalle-Emard-Verdun) all returned. We don’t expect to See Diane Lebouthiller (Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine) come back given the fact that she struggled at times at the Canada Revenue Agency. Look for a newcomer to take her place, possibly Rachel Bendayan (Outremont).
Ontario
Seat-rich Ontario will be a tough balancing act once again for Trudeau. The GTA was well represented last Parliament and you can expect more of the same this time around. Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre), Chrystia Freeland (University Rosedale), Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North), Karina Gould (Burlington) should be locks to get back in. Around the province, Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre) will be back, but anticipate a change from Environment for her. Karen McCrimmon (Kanata-Carleton) is worthy of consideration, possibly for Veterans Affairs given her military background and having defeated a high-profile Conservative candidate. Adam van Koeverden (Milton) beat long-time Conservative Lisa Raitt and will surely get a look for a portfolio like Sport. Another name to watch for possible cabinet from Ontario – Irek Kusmierczyk (Windsor-Tecumseh) who won in an NDP stronghold, taking the riding for the Liberals for the first time since 2000.
Election 43 – What’s Next?
Federal, NewsWritten by Peter Seemann
A week has passed since the votes were counted and Canadians handed Justin Trudeau a second mandate – albeit a minority with strings attached. Unlike other recent elections, the pollsters and pundits were largely accurate in their result predictions. Much has been written since last week’s votes were tabulated, yet here are a few observations from Grassroots that we feel are important to note.
Minority for 4 years
While the Liberals only managed to win a minority government, it’s not likely to fall any time soon. The Liberals will enjoy the support of the NDP on many issues and given the financial reality both parties face, it is unlikely either will want to trigger an early election. The Fall Economic Statement will likely shed light on early priorities of this government. We anticipate the governing Liberals to move forward as if they have a majority government, at least in the first year or two. With the electorate fed up with the mudslinging and negative politics of this recent campaign, no party wants to be responsible for triggering another vote anytime soon.
Climate change only increasing in Canadians’ minds
Regardless of what you believe is the truth and what you believe should be done, Canadians increasingly are looking for government to show leadership in dealing with climate change. The path forward for Prime Minister Trudeau and his government will not be easy. He has repeated his commitment to build the Trans Mountain pipeline which will draw cheers and jeers from opposing sides. At the same time his government implemented a carbon tax and will push forward with other initiatives that will challenge Canada to reach the Paris Climate Agreement. While the federal Conservatives picked up 26 seats and won the popular vote, they were widely criticized for not properly communicating or putting forward a strong enough environmental plan. Environmental concerns have risen before and are routinely overshadowed by economic concerns when times get tough. Most Canadians have enjoyed a long period of prosperity. It will be interesting to watch how this government balances the environment and economics if and when a long overdue recession finally comes.
New faces mean continued lobbying required
In total there were 91 rookie MPs elected across all party lines. There were also 7 MPs elected that have previously served in government but did not serve in the last 4 year term. A new cabinet will be sworn in by next month and once parliament resumes new committees will be formed. Lots of new faces mean more work to be done on the Hill communicating your message to government.
What’s your plan? Need help? The Grassroots team is ready to assist!
Grassroots welcomes Chris Gray to the team!
Grassroots NewsGrassroots Public Affairs is excited to welcome Senior Consultant Chris Gray to the team, effective immediately.
Located in Ottawa, Chris will head up federal advocacy for Grassroots’ clientele.
Recognized by The Hill Times as one of the top 100 lobbyists in Canada, Chris has worked in government and public affairs for 20 years. His career started on Parliament Hill working for MPs and a Cabinet Minister, before moving to the private sector with organizations including The Greater Toronto Airports Authority, The Canadian Chamber of Commerce and The Heart & Stroke Foundation. Chris has a proven track record of successfully advocating for changes to legislation and policy, and securing funding for organizations.
Chris is a native of Prince Edward Island and a graduate of Mount Allison University in Sackville, New Brunswick. Chris currently serves on the board of the Vimy Foundation.
Contact Chris:
Ford shuffles cabinet for a fresh start
News, ProvincialWritten by Peter Seemann
A little less than a year ago, Ontario Premier Doug Ford stood on the steps of Queen’s Park and was sworn in, along with his then-21-member cabinet. I was there with hundreds of others to witness that historic event and was genuinely pleased to see so many of the hard-working MPPs I had campaigned with be promoted to cabinet. This morning, in an attempt to hit the refresh button, a surprisingly large cabinet shuffle was announced, with many new faces becoming ministers, and several more changing portfolios. Knowing the shuffle was coming, one can always expect surprises, but the volume of changes and some of the reassignments caught many off guard, including me.
Cabinet increased in size to 28 after today’s shuffle, including five newly-created Associate Ministries. Only nine members of cabinet, including Premier Ford, kept their original positions. Twelve members of last year’s cabinet changed roles, and there are seven new faces. When the Ford government announced a smaller cabinet last year, they wanted to demonstrate fiscal responsibility compared to their Liberal predecessors. Now it seems there is a realization that more hands are needed to manage the significant work that needs to get done at Queen’s Park.
In recent months, there has been consistent criticism that the government mishandled communications across several key ministries, including Finance, Education, and Children’s Services. Not surprisingly, there were wholesale changes across all of these senior ministries. Former Environment Minister Rod Phillips takes over from Vic Fedeli in Finance. Phillips is largely viewed as having handled his former role well, despite its challenges, and is considered a good communicator – something the government badly needs as they aim to convince Ontarians of the need to slay the deficit. Christine Elliott stays on as Health Minister; however, as anticipated, her ministry was split and Dr. Merilee Fullerton from Ottawa takes on the Ministry of Long Term Care. In addition, the former Minister of Tourism, Michael Tibollo, assumes the newly created role of Associate Minister of Mental Health & Addictions under the Ministry of Health.
New Cabinet Members
Associate Minister of Children and Women’s Issues
Notable new faces include King Vaughan MPP and former PA to the Premier, Stephen Lecce, who received a significant promotion as the new Minister of Education. Lecce is considered to be a hard-working MPP and now assumes a contentious and difficult ministry. I had the chance to get to know Minister Lecce during last year’s election and there are few that campaigned as hard as he did. Barrie-area MPP Doug Downey, another candidate I got to know last year and a solid individual, becomes the new Attorney General. Downey performed well as the PA to Finance and is well-regarded as someone capable of entering cabinet. Former federal MP and current MPP for Markham Stouffville, Paul Calandra (another York Region MPP), becomes the new Government House Leader.
Ministers with their Original Role
Among members who maintained their previous roles are Treasury Board President Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Steve Clark, Energy, Northern Affairs, and Minister of Indigenous Affairs Greg Rickford, and Agriculture Minister Ernie Hardeman. These ministers managed their files well and were generally free of any controversy during year one of the Ford government’s mandate.
Ministers with Different Roles
Some are suggesting that several ministers, including Caroline Mulroney, Lisa Thompson, and Lisa MacLeod, were demoted to lesser roles in government; however, all of their new ministries have important issues for them to deal with. Todd Smith, largely viewed as a great communicator, takes over from Lisa MacLeod in the role of Minister of Children, Community and Social Services. He has a big task ahead to stickhandle the ongoing autism file, but Premier Ford must feel he’s up for the job.
Despite rampant rumours leading up to this morning’s announcement that members would be fired and there would be resignations and by-elections, there were no departures from cabinet. This is important and bodes well for the Ford government in that he clearly still has caucus support and caucus unity. The next year will be critical for this government as they attempt to improve their polling numbers by doing a better job communicating their priorities to the people of Ontario. I suspect the Premier and his staff planned this shuffle before announcing they would not return to the legislature until the end of October. Two thirds of the cabinet just received volumes of new reading material to review during the summer months.
Organizations have a great opportunity to meet these new ministers over the coming months. Need help communicating with government?
Grassroots Public Affairs can help!
Domestic Agriculture Widely Supported by Canadians
Federal, NewsTime is Now for Government to Treat Agri-Food Sector as a National Priority
TORONTO, ON – June 3, 2019 – A new poll by Grassroots Public Affairs finds Canadians hold largely positive views about the current and future state of agriculture and agri-food in Canada. Yet the industry, arguably one of the most significant in our economy, has work to do in telling its story.
The online survey measured awareness, attitudes, and public opinion on a range of agricultural issues and policies. With a federal election less than five months away, the research was conducted to measure how Canadians view the industry in comparison to other leading economic sectors, and how Canadian agriculture is viewed compared to the world.
Some of the more positive survey findings include:
“These findings confirm that policy makers and industry leaders can build on the agriculture sector’s positive reputation as clean, green and on the cutting edge of technology and innovation. Few other industries are viewed as positively by Canadians. This is a sector with enormous potential,” says Peter Seemann, Principal & Sr. Consultant at Grassroots Public Affairs.
Despite the generally positive findings, the results also highlight several areas where the sector needs to enhance its public opinion. Examples include:
“As Canada’s population has over time become more urbanized, the percentage of Canadians and the politicians that represent them, who have direct experience and understanding in agriculture has decreased,” added Seemann. “The industry needs to do a better job in collaborating and communicating the massive benefits it offers the country as a whole. This poll shows us Canadians already value our agriculture sector.”
Grassroots Public Affairs is currently working with various leading agri-food commodities and general farm organizations in Canada to promote Economic Development, Food Security and Environmental Stewardship within the agri-food sector for the benefit of all Canadians.
Methodology and Sample Size
The Canada-wide survey was conducted via an online panel of 1,002 Canadians aged 18+. Fieldwork for the survey took place between April 29th – May 2nd, and the survey was available in English and French.
For media inquiries, please contact:
Lindsay Yaciuk
Communications, Grassroots Public Affairs
lindsay@grassrootspa.ca
905-715-2788
Read our overview of polling data:
Federal Budget 2019 Review: 48 Hours Later
Federal, NewsFootage from Tuesday’s parliamentary proceedings seemed more like a day at the Coliseum than a house of peace, order and good government.
Minister of Finance Bill Morneau attempted to read aloud the 2019 federal budget as he has done for the last three years. In a spectacle like no other, he was met with deafening chants of “COVER UP! COVER UP!” from opposition members. The chanting was so loud that the parliamentary services translator was unable to hear the minister’s speech.
These chants were part of an overall strategy for the Conservatives to delay and obstruct the Liberal budget – retribution for the Liberal majority-ruled Justice Committee and their handling of the SNC-Lavalin Affair early yesterday morning. A number of parliamentary and procedural ruses (“POINT OF ORDER!”) were employed in the house – chanting (“LET HER SPEAK!”) being the most notable (and audible).
Seemingly unphased, Minister Bill Morneau delivered what he believed to be a budget that would invest in the middle class, pledging $22.8 billion in new spending.
While the speech was inaudible in the house, it was available online. Here are some of the major takeaways from Budget 2019:
Home Sweet Home
Budget 2019 pledges to make home ownership within greater reach for young Canadians. The government has promised to make housing more affordable by reducing barriers to homeownership for first-time home buyers, boost supply in Canada’s housing and rental markets as well as increase fairness in the real estate sector.
The Golden Years
The government pledged $1.8 billion over four years to enhance the guaranteed income supplement for low-income seniors. It would appear that the government also took some lessons away from the Sears bankruptcy: the budget will introduce safeguards to protect pensions in the event of company bankruptcies – a consequence largely felt among seniors and older Canadians.
Over the Counter
Although the government did not announce funding for a national pharmacare program, the budget pledged to set aside $35 million to establish a Canadian Drug Agency that will enhance work already done by provinces and territories on bulk drug purchases and negotiate better prices for prescription medicine. The government additionally stated that as of 2022, $1B will be made available to help Canadians with rare diseases access the high-cost drugs they need.
Talking Turkey – The Fiscal Outlook
It appears that the budget did not, in fact, balance itself. A significant promise of the 2015 Liberal campaign was to post annual deficits of no more than $10 billion and to balance by 2019. As of yesterday, the government announced its intention to run $20B deficits for the foreseeable future. Although the budget is forecasting the deficit will shrink to $9.8 billion by 2023-24, there is little-to-no mention as to when the government intends to balance the budget. Some experts are saying Budget 2019 may have painted the government into a cornerif a recession hits.
Despite criticism the government may face for their use of deficits, it’s not all bad news for Trudeau. The Ministry of Finance confirms 850,000 more Canadians are employed today than in 2015, and the unemployment rate is near a 40-year low. If the government can maintain this trend, it’ll make for excellent campaign advertising.
Opposition Reaction
It appears Andrew Scheer has been able to consume most of the media’s attention in his response to the government’s budget. On Tuesday, Scheer delivered a speech to his caucus and the media regarding the Liberals’ budget. Jagmeet Singh chose to focus on housing as his major sticking point to the government. Singh mentioned that RRSP measures will have little-to-no impact on millennials given the fact that many millennials’ RRSPs are in fairly precarious positions.
Both opposition leaders, most notably Scheer, are trying to use the SNC-Lavalin Affair as a means to discredit Trudeau’s budget. They’re trying to broadcast the image of a government that will use unethical means to influence policy to help well-connected friends. Their strategy has potential given the fact that one could promise the moon itself, but if there is no credibility, those promises will fall on deaf ears.
It should also be noted that both the NDP and the Tories have a stake in the two demographics most targeted in the budget: millennials and baby-boomers. The Liberal strategy is to grow the tent as much as possible to bring these key voter groups into a winning coalition. However, both opposition parties will do what they can to convince their respective bases that they’re being sold fool’s gold.
Media Reaction
Much of the post-budget reporting highlighted Minister Morneau’s emphasis on the middle class – a focus that was widely anticipated going into budget day. A Globe and Mail opinion piece by Rob Carrick outlined key demographic groups affected by Budget 2019 changes including homebuyers, postsecondary students, low-income seniors, “procrastinating retirees,” and Canadians interested in longevity insurance.
Paul Wells of Maclean’s contended that Budget 2019 is “sprinkled with what money TruMorn could scrape together” with many gestures that are “strikingly modest in scope.” Wells suggested that, despite clear preoccupation with election-year concerns, the Liberals’ reticence to spend too much money has forced them to come up with novel funding solutions, such as investments by the Canada Infrastructure Bank for universal high-speed internet provision.
Andrew Coyne’s piece in The National Post argued that the Liberals’ deficits are “deficits of choice, rather than necessity,” though he argues that deficits of this size will not ruin us (as the opposition claims), but neither would eliminating them. In his eyes, the quantity of spending isn’t so much the issue as the quality: in the rush to get all that “revenue-gusher” spending out the door, he argues that little thought has been given to whether the money is being spent in the best way, or whether it should be spent at all. Coyne also called into question a past Liberal promise that one dollar in three of new spending would go to infrastructure, as he pointed out that the reality is now closer to one in eight.
The View from the Grassroots
This budget is of critical importance for Trudeau. The media beast can only chew on one ankle at a time and right now it’s slowly gnawing at Justin Trudeau and his network of advisors. As a means to reduce the media’s hyper-focus on the ongoing SNC-Lavalin Affair, the Prime Minister needed to announce what exactly his government has accomplished in their past four years and where they intend to take the country in the future. On Tuesday, they needed to let each voter know: “you’re better off today than you were before.” The power of the pulpit allows the Liberals to announce a fully-costed campaign platform that can be repeated in sound bites over time in addition to changing the channel.
It’s not uncommon to see an incumbent government lose support over time. However, Trudeau’s Liberals have experienced quite a notable drop in support and are far from their “sunny ways” narrative when first elected. 2019 has seen support for the Liberal party decrease slightly. The most recent wave of polling from different firms has shown the party obtaining ~30% support. Considering the Liberals obtained 50% support in 2016, Trudeau and the Liberals have their work cut out for them this fall.
But wait, there’s more.
Whatever electoral impact Justin Trudeau intends to make, he must take the Ontario provincial budget (to be released April 11th) into account. Seeing as the Ford government was not exactly pleased with their federal counterparts, there is a chance that they may use their last word for reprisal. The carbon tax or other environmental policies could well be where that reprisal takes place. Both Trudeau and Ford defined much of their political capital around environmental issues. Whatever the provincial government choses to do with its last word, it will undoubtedly result in discomfort for Trudeau’s Liberals on the hustings.
Despite the media attention the SNC-Lavalin Affair is receiving, there is a chance that the electorate may be SNC-fatigued and are willing to hear what the government has in store for them. Remember: politics is “what have you done for me lately.”
As of today, it is possible for Trudeau to pull together a winning (albeit minority) government come election day, but it is doubtful as to whether Budget 2019 will make things any easier for the foreseeable future.
Tiberius was on to something when he said that ruling the Roman Empire was like “like holding a wolf by the ears.”
Adrian Macaulay, Director of Research & Polling
and Liz Gross, Campaign Support Specialist